They also check in on where the redistricting process stands around the country and ask what the two parties should be thankful for this Thanksgiving. FiveThirtyEight contributor Laura Bronner shares what the data can tell us about the ideological direction of the court with the addition of Justice Amy Coney Barrett. FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast | Free Listening on Podbean App FiveThirtyEight Politics https://feeds.megaphone.fm/ESP8794877317 Follow Share 13.5k Followers 200 Episodes Category: Politics Last Update: 2023-02-21 Claim Ownership The crew debates whether a recent Gallup poll showing that more Americans identify with the GOP than the Democratic Party is a "good or bad use of polling." They also ask whether the Republican Party can coalesce around an alternative to former President Donald Trump and whether President Bidens recent dismissal of the polls is a good or bad use of polling. They also ask whether it's too early to conclude that the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe has had little impact on the political environment. If we said there was a 70 percent chance a candidate would win a race, did that actually happen 70 percent of the time? Sept. 25, 2014. negro-leagues-player- ratings. Lastly, the team analyzes how the educational divide is shaping American politics. 71 Episodes Share Follow Seasons About 38 minutes | Feb 16, 2023 The Hero Who Rode His Segway Off a Cliff Steve Jobs called It "the most amazing piece of technology since the PC." According to Jeff Bezos It was not only "revolutionary," but infinitely commercial. Galen Druke speaks with political science professors Sunshine Hillygus and Patrick Eagan about the history of wedge issues and how they shape U.S. politics. Hello and welcome to the identity politics podcast I'm deal injury work. They also discuss Bidens sweeping vaccine mandate -- how Americans feel about vaccine mandates in general, how effective they are and if Bidens is legal. The crew also discusses how Americans are responding to the administrations handling of the end of the war. They also ask whether a recent poll that suggested about 15 percent of Americans believe in the QAnon conspiracy theory is a "good or bad use of polling.". The crew discusses the Virginia and new Jersey gubernatorial races a week before election day, and guesses how Americans feel about the potential provisions in the Democrats spending bill. The book is the first big reported account of the 2020 campaign in its entirety and is written by Jonathan Allen, senior political analyst with NBC News, and Amie Parnes, senior correspondent for The Hill. In her new book, Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes On A New Age Of Crisis, New York Times reporter Jeanna Smialek focuses on another unelected institution with a lot of power over American life: the Federal Reserve. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. They also rank the Senate races that will be most important in determining which party controls the Senate next year. It helps our wrinkle, which helps other discover the shop or just tell them on about this series, we'll be . Recent polls have sent some contradictory messages, but the long and short of it is that seven races are now separated by three points or less polling average. Thats Changing. The crew looks back at what Americans thought about some of the biggest political and cultural issues of 2021. Legal scholar Kate Shaw also digs into some of the specifics of the terms major cases, particularly on election law. robert kraft granddaughter. In this installment, the crew plays a game of midterm trivia and analyzes the press coverage surrounding the latest decline in life expectancy. geoffrey.skelley: After West Virginia, the most vulnerable Democratic seats are Ohio and Montana. Also, CalMatters Politics reporter Laurel Rosenhall and political analyst Paul Mitchell join to discuss the status of the California gubernatorial recall election. david senak now. The crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. Listeners wanted to know what to make of the NYC mayoral race, whether primary races tell us anything about the midterm elections, what voting system is the best, the likelihood of filibuster reform and, of course, whether or not hot dogs can be considered sandwiches. Good Sport TED Audio Collective Sports Requires subscription and macOS 11.4 or higher 28 FEB 2023 They also try to get to the bottom of whether Americans support the Parental Rights In Education Bill -- or what its critics call the Dont Say Gay Bill -- which Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law last week. They also check in on the upcoming Virginia governors race and discuss a FiveThirtyEight report about how Congress may have inadvertently legalized THC -- the main psychoactive compound in marijuana. New York City-based political reporters Gloria Pazmino and Erin Durkin discuss the current lay of the land in the Democratic mayoral primary and the issues that are motivating voters with less than a month until the election. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk about why Republicans are not backing a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol. Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what he's learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as host of the podcast. LS 81 Global Rank TOP 0.01% ABOUT THIS PODCAST Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. Transcript: Ezra Klein Interviews Ta-Nehisi Coates and Nikole Hannah-Jones July 30, 2021 Every Tuesday and Friday, Ezra Klein invites you into a conversation about something that matters, like. heritage commons university of utah. It's tempting to use the special election to gauge the national political environment, but the crew explains why one election alone isn't a reliable indicator. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Hosts of the British Talking Politics podcast, David Runciman and Helen Thompson, discuss why the British public and some members of the Conservative Party have soured on Johnson in a way that Republicans never soured on President Trump, despite his numerous scandals. Where the hot sports takes of the week meet the numbers that prove them right or tear them down. Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and game-changers every week. Schwartz and McMenamin: 11/29/21. They also discuss the accuracy of opinion polling conducted in authoritarian Russia and war-torn Ukraine. Galen and Nate react to former President Trump's entrance into the 2024 presidential race and debate he stands in a possible matchup against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. The crew tries to unpack whats driving Democrats legislative decisions and who will have to compromise to pass the party's agenda. The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Wednesday in one of the highest profile cases of the term. In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the factors that went into Republican Glenn Youngkin winning the Virginia governor's race. As the broader electorate shifted left in 2020, compared to 2016, Latino voters shifted 8 percentage points to the right. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections. is it illegal to wear military uniform in australia. Listen to FiveThirtyEight Politics on Spotify. Rev also gives transcribers the autonomy to work for as much or little as they want. Given some of the caveats in the poll, the crew asks whether it's a good or bad use of polling. What happens when a former president is facing all kinds of legal liability on the federal and local level, but is also still the de facto party leader and considering another run for the White House? 266, the . President Biden delivered his second State of the Union address on Tuesday to a newly divided Congress. They also have a good or bad use of polling on the topic of death and consider whether a recent Facebook hearing will lead to new regulations for the monolithic technology company. FiveThirtyEight - YouTube Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science and life. The majority of the coverage did not show signs of bias, such as articles on immigration, midterm elections and the Jan. 6 hearings. They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an undercount of Latinos. Ron DeSantis over Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential primary. A year later, Trump still appears to be the de facto leader of the party. Galen and Nate discuss the reasons for Republicans' improvement in the forecast. They also discuss the politics of reparations after a Democratic proposal in the House to study reparations for slavery was voted out of committee for the first time since it was introduced in Congress in 1989. Ron DeSantis are the only candidates who currently have sizable support in national polls. They also ask why support for gun control measures hasn't translated into new laws and look at steps the Pew Research Center is taking to ensure they have a representative sample of Republicans in their panel surveys. They also take a look at whether the Republican Party is conducting a post-mortem after its recent electoral losses. FiveThirtyEight Podcasts - FiveThirtyEight Podcasts Politics Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. They also consider Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's motivations for registering as an independent and look at the latest polling on a potential presidential primary matchup between Florida Gov. They also reflect on how British and American politics changed during the period when "Brexit" and "Trump" dominated the two countries news cycles and consider their lasting impact. We speak with journalist Sasha Issenberg about how that happened. They also consider whether abortion as an issue will motivate voters in other elections this fall and look at the primary winners in Arizona, Missouri, Michigan and Washington. The team debates if Americans really do move to Canada, or to different U.S. states, for political reasons. The first half of this episode originally aired on November 5, 2018, and was produced by Dan Pashman, Anne Saini, and Aviva DeKornfeld, with editing by Gianna Palmer and mixing by Dan Dzula. Why 10 Republicans Voted For Impeachment 300 views about 2 years ago 34:52 They also discuss the recent trend in Senate candidates refusing to debate each other and why Republicans can't agree on what abortion restrictions to pass. apache saddles amarillo texas shockwave treatment for gallstones in the philippines price But that doesnt stop us from talking about what we do know: that Republicans didnt make major gains in the Senate, and that the polls were pretty good this cycle. Joining the podcast are Andra Gillespie, political science professor at Emory University, Besheer Mohamed, senior researcher at Pew Research Center, and Stacey Holman, the director of PBSs recent documentary series The Black Church.". Saturday, February 25, 2023. Galen Druke speaks with the director of the Harvard study, Robert Waldinger, about the lessons his findings have for politics in America. American politics has changed a lot in the twenty years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The crew discusses what the future of the Build Back Better bill might look like in the Senate and why the provisions in the bill are more popular than the bill itself. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. June 2, 2016. The crew breaks down Rep. Liz Cheney's loss, what comes next, and who's currently up and down in Alaska. BOLIVAR The executive director of the Stark-Tuscarawas-Wayne Joint Solid Waste Management District is going to resign from the position and will then be rehired. They also look at mayoral elections, which are taking place in more than two dozen major cities, and special elections for a handful of vacant House seats. The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win Republicans win 16 in 100 16 in 100 . In the first "Model Talk" episode of the 2022 midterms cycle, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the factors behind that forecast. The crew discusses which states will determine the balance of both chambers and what theyve learned from this election so far. Overall, more moderate candidates were able to win against challengers from the Right and Left flank of both parties, although there was a sizable protest vote in some instances. With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. . Accuracy is not guaranteed. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. FiveThirtyEight Politics 199 Episodes Share Follow Episodes About 61 minutes | Feb 27, 2023 How The War In Ukraine Could Go Nuclear To mark a year since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Galen Druke brings back two experts who first joined the podcast when the war began. Since Jacksons confirmation is the expected outcome, the hearings similar to past ones were more about politics. They also touch on the health of the polling industry and how much Biden's success in a potential 2024 primary hangs on Democrats' performance at the midterms. This is the final FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast episode of the Trump presidency. FiveThirtyEight Politics The Gerrymandering Project: California . The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, Millions of people were without power or heat, and in some cases water, in freezing cold temperatures for days because of severe blackouts. Nate Silver's. On todays Politics Podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19, and the midterms. Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. The crew discusses Manchins rationale and where Democrats might go from here. They also break down what that means for future cases and what it means for the legitimacy of the court overall. On the Conversations with Tyler podcast, produced by the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, celebrated polymath and academic economist Tyler Cowen explores the minds and methods of today's top thinkers. Its generally considered to be one of the most comprehensive pictures of trends within the electorate. The crew discusses what the political environment is likely to look like in 2022 based on history and current indicators. With two new hosts, Anjali and Prateek, the second season of The Big Story will feature longer and well-rounded discussions with experts across science, culture, technology, politics, and more. The crew tries to rank the electoral significance of some of the biggest stories in the news right now. Democrats overperformed in two special elections on Tuesday, including a win in New York's 19th district, which is four points more Republican than the national partisan lean, according to FiveThirtyEights metric. With midterm elections in the rearview mirror, Galen and Nate open up the mail bag to answer lingering questions about the results. A lack of those relationships can actually have an impact on political behavior and interest in extreme ideologies. The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here. The crew discusses how Bidens approval rating may impact the midterm election, whether tracking Google search terms over time is a better barometer than traditional polling, and how Black voters are changing the political landscape of Georgia. FiveThirtyEight's political content often includes fact-driven statistical analysis. FiveThirtyEight Politics Transcripts | Podgist FiveThirtyEight Politics https://fivethirtyeight.com/podcasts/ Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. They also debate the meaning of a recent poll from Axios that suggests Americans are exhausted. As Emanuel Macron has occupied the middle of the political spectrum in France, with a focus on cooperation among European nations, the opposition parties have moved toward a nationalist, populist agenda. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The crew discusses what we've learned from President Biden's first 100 days in office and from his first address to a joint session of Congress. The crew discusses why the number of independents has been growing and what it means for American politics. His new book is called "The Engagement: Americas Quarter-Century Struggle Over Same-Sex Marriage.". This is the second episode. The State Of The Polls, 2016. The crew previews Tuesday's primaries in Georgia as well as contests in Arkansas, Alabama, Texas and Minnesota. They also assess how polls performed in 2019 and 2020 in general, with the benefit of hindsight and updated pollster ratings. Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what hes learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as host of the podcast. Pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson joins the crew to discuss a new survey that categorizes voters into at least four ideological quadrants and tries to imagine how voters would align if America were a multi-party democracy. The crew breaks down a poll that asked Americans to identify from good to evil and lawful to chaotic on the Dungeons and Dragons alignment chart. According to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal, Hispanic voters are now split evenly between the Democratic and Republican parties, just one year after 60 percent voted for Democratic House candidates. Democrat and former state Rep. Mary Peltola won Alaska's special congressional election on Wednesday, defeating Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III. The crew reacts to the results in Tuesdays primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. New episodes release Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Sundays. Tensions between the U.S. and China have grown in recent years and, in this installment, the crew looks at changing public opinion of China and how it could shape American politics. Earlier this month, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of climate change globally. The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. 30, 2021 How The CDC's Blindspots Complicated The Fight Against COVID-19 By Maggie Koerth and Sinduja Srinivasan Filed under Podcast-19 Jun. This is the final episode. The director of the Harvard Study of Adult Development -- the longest study of human life ever conducted -- concluded in a new book that close personal relationships are the "one crucial factor [that] stands out for the consistency and power of its ties to physical health, mental health and longevity." Almost a year after the 2020 Democratic National Convention, the crew looks back at the record number of Democrats who ran for president in 2020 and assesses where they are now. The board of directors voted Friday to accept the resignation of David Held, effective June 1, and will then offer him the same job on . Thee also tracks the latest voting restrictions being considered by Georgia Republicans, including a proposal to end early voting on Sundays, which is when Black churches traditionally mobilize voters through "souls to the polls" events. The crew discusses how debates on both the debt ceiling and the future of Rep. George Santoss career might unfold. The crew discusses the races to watch in Tuesday night's primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Oregon and Kentucky. The Rules of the Game podcast discusses and compares democratic institutions from around the world. The crew discusses what's in the "Freedom to Vote: John R. Lewis Act" and why Senate Democrats have taken it up despite unmoving opposition. They also explain why a dramatic shift among independent women in a recent New York Times poll shouldn't be taken at face value but also shouldn't undercut the poll. The crew previews Californias primaries, which offer unique insight into the divides within the Democratic Party. They also debate how reliable exit polls are in determining what motivates voters and consider how Democrats were able to overcome intra-party disagreements to pass a $1 trillion infrastructure bill. It was a fiendishly clever and massively hyped invention. The crew discusses the political fallout from the Supreme Courts decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. The idea of the celebrity politician isnt going away just because former President Trump is out of office. They also look at how the Democratic Party's effort to rearrange its presidential primary calendar is going, and ask whether a survey of Republican National Committee members was a good or bad use of polling. File Upload. Our tool analyzes your audio using Google voice recognition. In the main event, former light Republican Mayra Flores won the special election in Texass 34th congressional district on Tuesday, avoiding a runoff and flipping the longtime Democratic seat in Texass Rio Grande Valley. The crew asks whether comparisons to former President Donald Trump's own classified document scandal are apt. The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is headed. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19 The Ticket - A Presidential Podcast comes from the Texas Tribune. Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. March 1, 2023 6:30am by Barry Ritholtz. What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? All rights reserved. Transcripts by Erin Wade. In the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, it appeared that Republican leaders might be ready to break ties with then-President Trump once and for all. As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. As the 2022 primaries begin in earnest and potential presidential candidates look ahead to 2024, the fight over the future of the political right is underway. Later, Monica Potts joins to discuss why voters sometimes contradict their partisan beliefs on ballot measures. During the span of 25 years, same-sex marriage went from being an unimaginable idea to settled law. The crew debates which states should vote first in the presidential primaries if the Iowa caucuses were to go away. 01:06 PM. And if partisan loyalists were to make their way onto the Fed board, that degree of power could be abused. The crew talks about the most notable data points and what it means for Democratic and Republican strategies going forward. The crew speaks with professors Jane Junn and Karthick Ramakrishnan about the context of the Atlanta attacks and how Asian-American political participation has evolved in recent decades. The recall effort ultimately failed by a sizable margin. The U.S. shot down at least three unidentified flying objects over the weekend. But you can form your own by listening and learning (and learning how to listen). Whereas Tester . Crime analyst Jeff Asher discussed what those numbers can -- and can't -- tell us, and explains the challenges in collecting crime data. FiveThirtyEight Politics 295 views 25 Feb 2021 Transcribe your podcast [00:00:06] Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics podcast. The crew looks at why it took 15 votes to get Rep. Kevin McCarthy elected House Speaker and what that process says about the two years ahead and the GOP more broadly. Nate Silver is back from his book research/poker trip to Las Vegas, and in this installment, he sits down with Galen Druke to answer listener questions and talk about what he learned on the strip. Why Valentina Shevchenko Is A Huge Favorite And Jon Jones Isn't At UFC 285,A pair of championships are on the line at UFC 285 in Las Vegas Saturday night, and both title bouts offer a study in contrasts. In recent weeks, Democrats odds of keeping control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms have ticked up to sixty percent, according to our deluxe forecast model. The crew discusses the various types of legislation different states may adopt if Roe v. Wade is overturned, and how those policies jibe with local public opinion. 9 days ago. The crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a sizable portion of Republican voters support it, but Republican lawmakers do not. More Information Location: United States Genres: News & Politics Podcasts Politics News Networks: ABC News (US) Description: Its October and the surprises are rolling in. The crew debates whether the Democratic Party really is actually in disarray as it struggles to pass legislation and faces a difficult midterm year, or if its hurdles are usual for any party in power. They also preview next week's mayoral election in Chicago and ask whether a new poll of Arizona's 2024 Senate race is actually telling us anything useful. In Kim Barker's memory, the city of Laramie . The crew discusses what Cuomo's political future might hold and how New Yorkers are reacting to sexual harassment allegations. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. The crew discusses the politically thorny issue of mental acuity in an increasingly elderly U.S. government, and what Americans think about age limits for public office. The crew discusses how President Bidens executive action that forgives up to $20,000 of student loan debt will impact politics and the economy. Together they describe why the war has not turned out as originally expected, what the risks of escalation are today and how the conflict might come to an end. People are angry and politicians are pointing fingers. They consider how much preelection polling can tell us about the state of the country and what other sources we might rely on. Cuomo denied the allegations, but has faced overwhelming pressure to resign from fellow Democrats, including President Joe Biden. Raffensperger's new book is called Integrity Counts.". Join. The crew hosts its first-ever 2024 Republican primary draft (they plan to follow up next week with a 2024 Democratic primary draft). The crew also takes a look at the changes to election law that Republicans have proposed in Georgia and other states after Trump's loss in 2020. They also ask whether a sentiment analysis suggesting that the press is more negative on Biden than it was on President Trump is a "good or bad use of data.". Feb. 28GLASTONBURY When Jonathan K. Luiz starts work as town manager March 31, he will be making $190,000 per year.